In order to really get ahead in life, thinking outside the box is an ability that few have, and yet it makes all the difference. Looking beyond import statistics to understand where the next opportunities are emerging is an example of how some wine companies emerge, others get ahead, and still others become worldwide case studies for how to have success in business. For those that lack a similar ability, well…
For many wineries around the world, the perception is that China has become an increasingly difficult market to justify. After years of declining imports, weaker consumer confidence and slower economic growth, many producers naturally ask whether China still deserves the time, resources and long-term investment it once did. It is a reasonable question. But perhaps it is not the right one.
The slowdown is real, but then the slowdown is generalized to the world, not just China. According to the International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV), China’s wine consumption fell by 19.3% in 2024 to approximately 5.5 million hectolitres, continuing the downward trend that began in 2018. (Again, a downward trend in drinking habits and consumption is common to just about every country nowadays.)
But as the saying goes, statistics are for losers; and especially so if you don’t know how to interpret them. In fact, amidst the negative data, it just so happens that China’s wine imports moved in the opposite direction. After six consecutive years of decline, import volumes rose by 13.7% in 2024 to 2.8 million hectolitres, while import value increased by 37.6% to approximately €1.5 billion. However, this rebound was driven to a significant degree by the return of Australian wine and should not be mistaken for a broad recovery in demand. Excluding Australia, imports of bottled wine from other countries still declined by approximately 13.6% in volume and 11.1% in value. Together, these figures describe a market more complicated than either “recovery” or “decline.” This is because import statistics tell us how large a market is. They tell us much less about how that market is evolving.
Beneath the headline numbers, China’s wine culture continues to change. New consumption occasions are emerging, younger consumers are developing different drinking habits, and the wines attracting attention today are often very different from those that dominated the market a decade ago. For wineries, understanding these structural changes may prove far more valuable than waiting for import volumes to recover.
A Different Market Requires a Different Strategy
Ten or fifteen years ago, entering China often meant presenting one flagship wine. Business banquets, corporate gifting, luxury hotels and fine dining dominated premium wine consumption. Export strategies naturally focused on prestigious red wines capable of representing a winery’s reputation, history and status. That market has not disappeared. But it no longer defines China on its own.
Today, wine is consumed across a much broader range of occasions. Wine bars continue to develop in major cities. Contemporary Chinese restaurants are paying increasing attention to food pairing. By-the-glass programmes have become more common. Younger consumers drink wine with friends rather than clients and often choose a bottle according to the occasion, rather than reputation alone. This is more than a change in sales channels. It is a change in the way wine fits into everyday life. For wineries, it signals that export strategy deserves to be reconsidered.
The Market Changes First. Importers Respond.
It is often assumed that importers create market trends. In reality, they usually respond to them. A decade ago, the strongest demand came from business dining and gifting. Importers naturally searched for prestigious wineries, internationally recognised appellations and flagship wines suited to those occasions. As China’s wine culture evolves, the market is asking for something different. Restaurants need wines that pair naturally with food. Wine bars look for bottles that encourage exploration rather than relying on prestige alone. Retailers increasingly seek wines that are approachable, easy to understand and easy to recommend. By-the-glass programmes demand freshness, consistency, drinkability and commercially workable pricing. Importers have not fundamentally changed the way they think. It is the market that changes the way they think, and that has changed what they need to look for. For wineries, this distinction is important. Rather than asking why importers are changing their buying decisions, it may be more useful to ask how consumer behaviour is reshaping those decisions.
One Wine Is No Longer Enough
Perhaps the most important implication for international wineries is this: China can no longer be approached effectively with a single flagship wine. In the past, that was often sufficient. Today, different consumption occasions require different wines. A restaurant may need a genuinely food-friendly white. A wine bar may look for an expressive, easy-drinking red. By-the-glass programmes require wines that remain fresh and inviting throughout service. Specialist retailers may seek distinctive regional wines with a compelling and easily communicated story. The flagship wine nevertheless remains important. It establishes the winery’s identity, demonstrates its quality and gives the rest of the portfolio a stronger frame of reference. These wines are not competing with one another. They perform different roles within the same market. Increasingly, success in China depends less on presenting one outstanding wine than on building a portfolio capable of serving different channels, price points and occasions. For export managers, this is not primarily a winemaking question. It is a portfolio strategy question. China has not stopped needing flagship wines. It simply no longer needs only the flagship wine.
Why Certain Wines Continue to Perform
Germany’s performance with Riesling illustrates this evolution particularly well. Its success cannot be explained by promotion alone. For sure, the German government institutions have done a wonderful job educating young Chinese generations on Riesling, its terroirs, and wine styles. Young Chinese people who like wine “get” Riesling: that’s a lot more that can be said about other world wines. Riesling also naturally answers several needs created by today’s Chinese market. Its bright acidity allows it to pair comfortably with a wide range of regional cuisines, from seafood and delicately steamed dishes to Sichuan food, Hunan cuisine and hotpot. Its moderate alcohol makes it suitable for longer meals and more casual drinking occasions.From dry to off-dry and lightly sweet styles, Riesling also offers a broad spectrum of expression, giving consumers with different levels of wine experience an accessible point of entry. In 2024, China imported approximately 4.55 million litres of bottled German wine, an increase of 9.2% over the previous year. This alone does not indicate rapid category growth. It does, however, suggest that wines with a clear identity and an identifiable consumption occasion can still attract attention in a contracting market. Riesling’s performance therefore reflects more than the effectiveness of German wine promotion. It reflects the kinds of wine that fit naturally into contemporary Chinese dining culture.
Italy offers another interesting example. Moscato d’Asti has become affectionately known among many Chinese consumers as xiao tian shui—“little sweet water.” Consumers do not necessarily choose it because they understand DOCG regulations, hillside vineyards or its production method. They choose it because it is aromatic, refreshing, approachable and low in alcohol. Like Riesling, they “understand” it. Moscato d’Asti fits afternoon gatherings, birthday celebrations, desserts and casual social occasions with remarkable ease. For many younger consumers, it provides an accessible, unintimidating introduction to wine. Riesling and Moscato d’Asti could hardly be more different stylistically. Yet both have found an audience because each occupies a clear and easily understood place within China’s evolving consumption culture.
From Product-Driven to Occasion-Driven
Perhaps the biggest transformation taking place in China is not simply what consumers drink. It is why they drink it. For many years, wineries understandably concentrated on communicating history, appellation, ratings, vineyards and reputation. Those elements remain important. But another question now matters just as much: “Where does this wine naturally belong?” Not simply on a wine list, but in consumers’ lives. Wine after work with colleagues. Sparkling wine during brunch. Riesling with hotpot. A lighter red shared among friends. A flagship bottle opened for an important dinner. These occasions expand the market. They do not replace traditional business dining, gifting or fine dining. They create additional opportunities alongside them. The question is therefore no longer simply how to educate Chinese consumers about a winery’s wines. It is how to understand the occasions in which consumers are already choosing to drink wine—and what role each wine can play within them.
China Is Changing, and so Should Your Portfolio.
China today is undoubtedly different from the market many wineries first entered fifteen or twenty years ago. But different does not mean irrelevant. It means the market is becoming more segmented and more demanding. China is no longer a market that can be opened easily through reputation, ratings or a single flagship wine. Channels require clearer positioning, consumers need more immediate reasons to choose a bottle, and importers need portfolios that can function across different occasions. The opportunities have not disappeared.They have evolved. Before entering—or reassessing—the Chinese market, wineries may therefore need to ask themselves three practical questions:
- Which wine establishes the identity of our estate?
- Which wine can generate consistent sales and repeat consumption?
- And which wine fits naturally into China’s emerging dining and social occasions?
A successful portfolio does not need to be large, but every wine within it should have a clearly defined role. The flagship establishes stature. Core wines provide commercial continuity. Food-friendly and more accessible wines allow the brand to enter a wider range of consumption occasions. The objective is not to bring the winery’s entire catalogue to China. It is to select wines that support one another. For wineries willing to understand these changes, invest patiently in brand building and align their portfolios with the realities of today’s market, China still deserves a place in a long-term export strategy. This does not mean that every winery should enter China in the same way. Nor does it guarantee immediate returns. It means that opportunities still exist, but capturing them requires more accurate judgement, clearer product positioning and longer-term cooperation between wineries and importers.
Twenty years ago, success in China often depended on introducing the right flagship wine. Today, it increasingly depends on introducing the right portfolio. The wineries best positioned for China’s next phase may not be those making different wines. They are more likely to be those thinking differently about how each of their wines fits a changing market.
(Sources: OIV, State of the World Vine and Wine Sector in 2024; 2024 China Customs wine import data analysis.)
